(Preserving the Soul of Nigeria)
By Eld. Yusuf Solomon Danbaki, PhD
NEWSDAILYNIGERIA: In Nigeria’s complex political landscape, one principle stands taller than electoral victory: zoning. Winning an election may deliver a president, but zoning sustains a nation. You cannot have a functional president without first securing the nation itself. This unwritten covenant, rotating power across Nigeria’s major regions, has become a stabilizing force in our multi-ethnic democracy. It may not appear in the Constitution, but it resides deeply in the soul of Nigeria. To preserve that soul is to save the Constitution, rather than rigidly preserving the letter of the law while mortally wounding the spirit that makes Nigeria one.
Zoning is Nigeria’s informal power rotation formula, primarily between the North and South, designed to give every major section of the country a sense of belonging and stake in the federation. It emerged from painful historical lessons, military rule, coups, civil war echoes, and repeated agitations for equity. It acknowledges a simple truth: in a diverse nation like ours, where ethnicity and religion often intersect with politics, unchecked dominance by any region breeds resentment, marginalization, and instability.
Not everything legal is morally right. A candidate or party may legally field anyone from anywhere under the Constitution. Yet morality, prudence, and long-term national interest demand restraint. Ignoring zoning risks turning Nigeria into a zero-sum contest where one region’s gain is another’s permanent loss. That path leads not to stronger institutions, but to deeper divisions.
Consider 2019. When President Muhammadu Buhari, a Northerner, sought re-election, major southern politicians in the ruling APC and the main opposition PDP largely stepped aside or supported arrangements that pitted Atiku Abubakar (North) against Buhari (North). Southern ambitions were subordinated for that cycle. This reflected a measure of elite consensus around zoning at the time.
Fast forward to the current dispensation. President Bola Tinubu, a Southerner, is in power. For the sake of consistency and reciprocity, it is only fair that Northern leaders, particularly aspirants like Atiku Abubakar, allow space for credible Southern contenders to compete in the next cycle against a Southern incumbent or successor. Reciprocity is the glue of federalism. If the North insists on breaking the rotation now, it sets a dangerous precedent. By 2031, the South may well reference 2023 and 2027 to justify fielding Southern candidates, competing with the North. What goes around comes around.
The North, with its demographic weight and political influence, risks setting a trap that will eventually consume it. When one region captures power and fills key appointments predominantly with kinsmen and allies, as seen under Buhari and now being replicated under Tinubu, it deepens perceptions of exclusion. Buhari’s first term faced widespread criticism for poor performance in security and economy; yet powerful Northern voices insisted on a second term. Hence Tinubu’s kinsmen are calling on him to contest for a second term despite deepening poverty and insecurity. The pattern repeats. Such ethno-regional consolidation may deliver short-term wins but erodes national cohesion and invites future backlash.
Abandoning zoning in pursuit of “competence” or “winning at all costs” is a seductive but flawed argument. Competence exists in every zone of Nigeria. The real deficit is often in equitable power-sharing, which builds trust and legitimacy. Without broad legitimacy, even the most competent leader struggles to govern effectively amid suspicion and sabotage.
A nation fractured along regional lines cannot marshal the collective will needed for development. Investment dries up in an atmosphere of uncertainty. Talented citizens from “losing” zones become disengaged or emigrate. Agitations, whether in the Southeast, South-South, or Middle Belt, intensify. History shows that when large sections of Nigeria feel perpetually shut out of the presidency, centrifugal forces grow stronger.
Zoning is not perfect. It can sometimes sideline excellent candidates and entrench mediocrity. Yet in Nigeria’s context, it serves as a necessary shock absorber. It forces elite negotiation and compromise, preventing outright winner-takes-all politics that has destabilized many multi-ethnic states across Africa.
The elders of the North—traditional rulers, elder statesmen, intellectuals, and political leaders, carry a heavy responsibility. They must put on their thinking caps and call aspirants like Atiku Abubakar to order. Short-term ambition must yield to long-term strategic interest. The North’s place in 2031 and beyond depends on upholding the same zoning principle it benefited from in previous cycles. Respect for rotation today is an investment in Northern relevance tomorrow.
True leadership is not about grabbing the presidency at every opportunity. It is about building a Nigeria where every region feels it has a fair shot, thereby reducing the incentive for destructive politics. Atiku and other Northern leaders have an opportunity to rise above personal and regional calculation. By supporting zoning, they preserve the soul of Nigeria and secure their own future influence.
Conclusively, Nigeria’s unity is not guaranteed; it is negotiated daily through equity, fairness, and mutual respect. Zoning embodies that negotiation. Prioritizing winning over zoning may produce a president, but at the risk of losing the nation. We must nurture the soul of Nigeria, its unwritten codes of balance and inclusion, while strengthening the Constitution. Only then can we build a stable, prosperous federation where presidents come and go, but the nation endures.
The choice before our leaders is clear: entrench zoning and save the nation, or chase victory at all costs and reap division. The soul of Nigeria is watching.