NEWSDAILYNIGERIA: When I wrote last year about the resignation of Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje as National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), I argued that developments of that nature in Nigerian politics are rarely coincidental. Beneath the official explanations often lie deeper calculations, subtle negotiations and carefully timed exits designed to realign power ahead of future contests.

In a political system where ambition is rarely declared early, such moments usually signal the beginning of a much longer strategic process.

That article placed Ganduje’s exit within the wider, largely unseen contest among Northern political actors to reposition themselves ahead of the 2027 general election.

Party leadership positions, internal reshuffles and deliberate silences are often the first indicators that serious negotiations are already underway. In many ways, these internal manoeuvres matter more than public rallies, because they determine who controls the levers of influence long before voters are mobilised.

Developments since then have reinforced that interpretation. As Nigeria gradually shifts its attention towards the next electoral cycle, there are clear indications that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu understands the fluid nature of political advantage. Electoral victories, particularly in a diverse and volatile polity, are never permanent, and yesterday’s strategy must constantly be reviewed in light of new social and political realities.

One of the most visible signs of this reassessment is the renewed clamour for a Northern Christian Vice-Presidential candidate.

This debate has once again brought religion, representation and national balance to the forefront of political discourse, reminding us that Nigerian elections are rarely fought on policy alone. For many citizens, identity and inclusion remain central to how political choices are judged.

Although no official statement has been made, persistent reports that such an option is being considered suggest an awareness within the ruling party that the Muslim-Muslim ticket of 2023, while constitutionally valid and electorally successful, came with significant political and emotional costs.

Those costs did not disappear after the election; they merely went dormant, resurfacing periodically in public debate and private conversations.

For many Christian communities in the North, the 2023 ticket was interpreted as more than a tactical decision. It was seen as a symbolic exclusion from the apex of power, reinforcing long-standing feelings of marginalisation.

In a country like Nigeria, symbolism matters because it shapes perceptions of belonging, fairness and shared ownership of the state.

From an academic perspective, Nigeria’s political stability since independence has depended heavily on informal balancing mechanisms such as zoning, regional rotation and religious pairing. These conventions, though unwritten, have served as practical tools for managing diversity and preventing the domination of any single bloc.

They may be imperfect, but they have often functioned as essential stabilisers in a deeply plural society.

President Tinubu’s decision to depart from this tradition in 2023 was defended by supporters as a triumph of merit, competence and political pragmatism over sentiment.

Yet politics does not operate in a social vacuum. The intensity of the backlash demonstrated that technocratic explanations, however logical, cannot fully override deeply rooted communal sensitivities.

While the APC ultimately secured victory at the polls, the controversy weakened the administration’s moral authority in certain regions and handed opposition parties a powerful narrative.

That narrative continues to resonate among voters who feel that inclusion should not be sacrificed on the altar of electoral arithmetic.

It is against this background that the present discussion about a Northern Christian running mate must be understood. Rather than an act of desperation, it appears to be a strategic effort to rebuild trust, broaden political consent and stabilise the governing coalition ahead of another highly competitive election.

Several names have surfaced in this context, including Yakubu Dogara, Christopher Musa, Caleb Mutfwang and Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah. Each of these figures represents a distinct political, regional or moral constituency, reflecting the breadth of considerations involved in balancing competence, symbolism and electability.

Yakubu Dogara brings legislative experience and a reputation for bridge-building, qualities that appeal to those who believe governance requires negotiation, institutional knowledge and political maturity.

His journey through the National Assembly positions him as a familiar figure within the political establishment.

General Christopher Musa represents a security-focused profile at a time when insecurity dominates national conversation. To many ordinary Nigerians, leadership grounded in discipline and command offers reassurance in the face of persistent violence and uncertainty that affect daily life.

Governor Caleb Mutfwang symbolises the political aspirations of the North-Central zone, a region that often feels caught between competing Northern and Southern interests.

His mention highlights the growing insistence of the Middle Belt on recognition, equity and meaningful participation in national leadership.

Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah’s name captures a populist yearning for moral clarity in public life.

His outspoken advocacy for justice and accountability resonates with citizens frustrated by conventional politics, even if his candidacy would challenge traditional assumptions about the boundaries between faith and governance.

Yet beyond the speculation over possible alternatives, the position of Vice President Kashim Shettima remains a central factor that cannot be casually dismissed.

His steadfast loyalty during the most contentious phases of the 2023 campaign, coupled with his steady public presence since assuming office, has earned him considerable goodwill within the ruling party and across the wider political landscape.

He has come to embody a sense of institutional stability at a time when the administration is under intense scrutiny.

Retaining Shettima would therefore signal continuity and reaffirm the notion that loyalty, performance, and political sacrifice still carry weight in Nigerian politics.

Replacing him, on the other hand, would underscore the often unsentimental realities of electoral politics, where cold strategic calculations frequently trump personal bonds and past contributions.

Such a decision would require delicate handling, careful messaging, and credible political compensation to avoid fuelling discontent, weakening party cohesion, or reopening fault lines the party has worked hard to manage.

Beyond these elite manoeuvres lies a deeper truth that ordinary
Nigerians grasp instinctively, that religious balance alone cannot resolve insecurity, economic hardship or perceptions of injustice.

Symbolic gestures may calm tensions temporarily, but they cannot substitute for effective governance.

Ultimately, the 2027 election will judge not just the composition of the presidential ticket but the credibility of governance itself.

Nigerians will decide whether power is being exercised merely to win elections or to build a fairer, more inclusive nation capable of accommodating its many identities and aspirations.

Shu’aibu Usman Leman is a former National Secretary of Nigeria Union of Journalists- NUJ.

…AUF…
(Wednesday 21/01/2026)

opinion .